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AIMMA

Guide

How to read a card

Two screens, five fields. Once you know what they mean, the whole site reads in about thirty seconds.

Upcoming events

This screen answers one question per fighter: how short can the odds get before the bet stops being worth making? Here is a real card entry.

  • Andreas Michailidis

    Value

    2.16

    min odds

    best 2.45

    vs

    Louis Glismann

    Model pick

    1.95

    min odds

Note what this example is saying. The model expects Louis Glismann to win — and still, the only bet worth making is on Andreas Michailidis, because STS is paying 2.45 against a minimum of 2.16. The pick and the bet are different questions.

The fighter's name
One block per corner. On settled cards the winner's block is tinted green and the loser's is dimmed.
Model pick
Who the model expects to win. Useful context, but not a reason to bet on its own — favourites are usually priced too short to be worth backing.
Min odds
The heart of the card. Below this price a bet on that fighter loses money over the long run, after the 12% tax. Above it, the bet has positive expected value.
Value
At least one bookmaker is currently paying above the minimum. Hover the tag to see which books and at what price.
Best
The highest price any tracked bookmaker is offering. The bigger the gap to the minimum, the more the bet is worth.

Past events

The same cards after the fact, with what actually happened and what a flat $100 stake returned. Three cases cover almost everything you will see.

  1. 01

    A miss that cost nothing

    The model picked Artem Frolov and Shamil Abdulaev won. No bookmaker was paying above either minimum, so no money went on the fight. A wrong call, but a free one — it never enters the ledger.

    • Artem Frolov

      Model pick
      vs

      Shamil Abdulaev

      Winner
      No bet — no price cleared the line
  2. 02

    The right winner, the wrong price

    The model picked Osimkhon Rakhmonov, and he won — but his price was far too short to bet. The underdog was priced generously enough to carry positive expected value, so the $100 went there instead. It lost. This happens often, and it is still the correct bet.

    • Osimkhon Rakhmonov

      WinnerModel pick
      vs

      Jose Alexandre

      Value
      Result -$100.00
  3. 03

    Everything lines up

    The model picked Mukhitdin Kholov, the price cleared the minimum comfortably, and he won. The $100 returned $208 net of the 12% tax.

    • Mukhitdin Kholov

      WinnerModel pickValue
      vs

      Vinicius Cruz

      Result +$108.00

The headline statistics count only the bets that were actually placed. Fights where no bookmaker cleared the line never enter the ledger — which is why the number of settled bets is always smaller than the number of fights.

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