Frequently asked

A machine-learning model that estimates the true probability of each MMA fight, and a site that publishes those estimates. Instead of telling you who to back, it tells you the lowest odds at which a bet on a given fighter stops losing money over the long run.

It reads a wide set of signals for both fighters — record and record quality, finish and defence rates, time since the last bout, physical match-up and how similar styles have historically fared — and turns them into a win probability for each side. That probability is then converted into a break-even odd after tax.

Compare your bookmaker's odds against the number on this page. If the book is paying more than our minimum, the bet carries positive expected value; the bigger the gap, the more it is worth on average. If the book is paying less, the fight is a pass.

No prediction is ever certain, and MMA is one of the noisiest sports there is. What matters is not hit rate but whether the prices we take beat the true probabilities over hundreds of bets. Every settled bet we have ever published is on the past results page — the losing runs included.

A flat $100 goes on each fight where at least one bookmaker prices above our minimum, always at the best available price. From the gross winnings we subtract tax and the stakes themselves; what is left is net profit.

Yield is net profit divided by the total amount staked. It measures how much each dollar put through the model returns, which is a far more honest measure of an edge than the raw number of correct picks.

Upcoming cards are priced as soon as the matchups are locked and bookmakers open their markets, and are refreshed as odds move. Results are settled shortly after each event finishes.

The published minimum odds already account for a 12% betting tax, which is what applies in Poland. If your jurisdiction taxes differently, the break-even point shifts: with no tax the minimum odd is lower, so some fights we mark as a pass may be playable for you.

No. The flat $100 stake is only how we keep the published track record comparable across events. Stake whatever is right for you, keep it consistent, and never stake money you cannot afford to lose.

Betting rules vary widely by country and by state. It is on you to check what applies in your jurisdiction before placing anything. This site publishes statistics, not betting services.

Any limit comes from your bookmaker, not from us. We only publish the price at which a bet becomes worth making.