Machine-learning fight analytics
Every fight has a fair price.
We publish it.
Our model turns fighter history into a win probability, then works out the lowest odds that still make a bet worth placing. Picks go up before the card. Results stay up afterwards — the losses too.
Bets settled
138
Fights where the model found a price worth taking
Net profit
$2,135.92
After stakes and 12% tax, flat $100 per bet
Yield
+15.47%
Net profit divided by total staked
Flat stake
$100
Every bet the same size — no chasing
Live from the model's ledger. Every number on this site is computed from settled bets — nothing is back-filled.
Three steps, no hunches
The model does not try to tell you who wins. It tries to tell you what the fight is worth.
- 01
Model the fight
Records, finish rates, layoffs, style match-ups and the quality of past opposition go in. A win probability for each fighter comes out.
- 02
Find the break-even line
That probability becomes a minimum odd — the price at which a bet stops losing money once the 12% betting tax is taken out.
- 03
Take the price, or pass
We list every bookmaker paying above the line. If nobody does, the fight is a pass. Most of them are.
The whole ledger, not the highlights
A flat $100 goes on every bet that clears the line. Nothing is hidden when a run goes badly — the curve below is the complete history.
Equity curve
Cumulative profit, flat $100 stakes, every settled bet included
+$2,135.92
Bookmakers price the crowd. We price the fight.
A bookmaker's line moves with the money, and the money follows names, highlight reels and home crowds. That gap is where the value sits — usually on the fighter nobody is talking about.
So we don't publish "who to bet on". We publish a number: the price below which a bet loses money over time. Compare it to your book. If they're paying more, the bet is worth making. If they aren't, walk.
Start here
Before the bell
Upcoming picks
Minimum odds for every fight on the next cards, plus the books currently clearing them.
OpenAfter the bell
Past results
Every settled bet, what it returned, and the fights where the model called it wrong.
OpenLonger form
The blog
Match-up breakdowns, model post-mortems and notes on where the numbers came from.
OpenOn video
Card breakdowns, every week
We walk through the fights the model likes, why it likes them, and the ones it got wrong last time out.
Next card
The lines are already up. See what the model would take.
Free, no account, no tips channel. Just the numbers and what happened next.